Although geopolitical tensions remained present, their immediate impact on energy markets diminished, resulting in more stable—though still cautious—trading conditions.
Stability in oil prices despite geopolitical tensions
Oil prices moved higher in a relatively stable manner, reflecting a temporary balance between easing short-term risks and still-tight structural supply conditions. Market participants continued to place greater weight on optimistic expectations, even though clear geopolitical improvements failed to materialize.
No changes were made to the portfolio last week.
Portfolio check: high liquidity as a shield
The equity allocation remains at around 60%, while the cash allocation is deliberately kept high at approximately 40%. This elevated liquidity provides protection against potential short-term market dislocations and preserves flexibility for future opportunities.
Within the portfolio, core positions such as Halliburton, Occidental Petroleum, ConocoPhillips and Chevron remained largely stable. Exxon Mobil and Cheniere Energy continued to reflect the weakness of the previous period, while Schlumberger and Equinor showed initial signs of stabilization.
Uranium Energy remained volatile, though with a slightly downward trend.
Overall, the UMBRELLA strategy remains deliberately positioned cautiously in this environment. As long as markets price in expectations more strongly than genuinely confirmed fundamental improvements, the focus remains on risk control, safeguarding liquidity, and patiently waiting for clearer signals.
