The past week was characterized by increased volatility and several adjustments within the MUMAK® UMBRELLA Strategy.
During the course of the week, Thales and PayPal were fully sold following confirmed stop-loss signals, while Micron Technology was newly added. At the same time, Eli Lilly and Rheinmetall moved into particularly close technical focus.
The result is a slightly more concentrated UMBRELLA Strategy with 10 stocks and a cash ratio of around 3.9%.
From observation to consequence: Thales leaves the strategy
Already at the beginning of the week, Thales was among the positions with the greatest need for technical monitoring.
The stock had fallen below the defined stop-loss level of EUR 235 and was unable to sustainably reclaim the EUR 235–236 range.
The remaining position of approximately 3.0% was therefore fully sold. The transactions were executed at prices around EUR 231. Subsequently, Thales was moved to the UMBRELLA Watchlist.
The decision does not represent a fundamental departure from the long-term theme of the European defense industry. Rather, the decisive factor was the deterioration of the technical profile during a phase in which European defense stocks overall showed weaker momentum.
Rheinmetall and TKMS remain part of the UMBRELLA Strategy, although the engagement in the sector is now significantly more selective.
MUMAK Assessment
The exit from Thales illustrates a key component of the UMBRELLA process: even a fundamentally interesting company can leave the strategy if the technical risk profile deteriorates accordingly.
Micron Technology: New position from the Research Watchlist
The Thales exit was accompanied by a second important adjustment.
After several days on the Research Watchlist, Micron Technology was newly added to the UMBRELLA Strategy on September 8, initially with a weighting of around 2.5%. Following recent market movements, the share is currently around 2.9%.
An initial stop-loss was set at EUR 810, providing the new position with a technical buffer after entry.
MUMAK Assessment
With Micron, another building block in the AI infrastructure sector enters the UMBRELLA Strategy.
Micron was also selected as our RED HOT CHILI™ MUMAK of the week. The decisive factor is the current alignment between fundamentals, market sentiment, and the technical profile.
PayPal: Stabilization fails to hold
The development for PayPal was almost the opposite.
After the significant sell-off at the end of August, the stock had recently shown initial signs of stabilization. However, the technical recovery proved to be unsustainable.
During the week, PayPal increasingly approached the stop-loss at EUR 45.50. On September 9, the stock was already trading almost directly at this level. After the level was subsequently breached on a daily closing basis, the technical signal intensified.
On September 10, the remaining PayPal position of around 2.1% was fully sold. The limit sell orders were executed at prices around EUR 44.91–44.96.
PayPal was subsequently moved to the UMBRELLA Watchlist.
MUMAK Assessment
The fundamental assessment of the company has not fundamentally changed as a result of the exit. However, the attempted recovery after the August sell-off was not sufficient to reverse the deterioration of the technical profile.
Eli Lilly and Rheinmetall: The next technical test
Following the exits of Thales and PayPal, Eli Lilly and Rheinmetall are currently among the positions requiring the most monitoring.
Eli Lilly fell below the reassessed stop-loss area around EUR 977 during the week. As the position accounts for approximately 13% of the strategy, further development is particularly relevant.
Similarly, Rheinmetall is trading close to the stop-loss of EUR 1,010.
However, the starting position here is somewhat different: the Rheinmetall weighting has already been significantly reduced and currently stands at around 3.2%. As a result, the strategy’s risk regarding further weakness in the stock is considerably lower.
Current UMBRELLA Strategy
| Position | Current Weighting | Performance since inclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Revolution Medicines | 18.1% | +24.5% |
| Johnson & Johnson | 14.0% | +8.9% |
| Eli Lilly | 13.0% | +0.8% |
| Bayer | 13.0% | +9.6% |
| SpaceX | 12.2% | +4.2% |
| MercadoLibre | 8.9% | −2.5% |
| Palantir Technologies | 8.5% | −2.3% |
| Rheinmetall | 3.1% | −18.8% |
| Micron Technology | 2.9% | −4.2% |
| TKMS | 2.6% | −13.4% |
Source: wikifolio.com, UMBRELLA (WFUMBRELLA), as of September 11, 2026.
Markets add to volatility
The adjustments within the UMBRELLA Strategy did not occur in isolation.
Inflation and monetary policy were among the most important market drivers this week. The ECB interest rate decision, US producer prices, and shifting expectations regarding future monetary policy created a market environment in which growth and technology stocks reacted sensitively to changes in yields and valuation expectations.
At the same time, European defense stocks continued to show a mixed and volatile picture.
This environment underscores the importance of distinguishing between the long-term fundamental investment thesis of a company or sector and the shorter-term technical risk profile.
For the UMBRELLA Strategy, both levels remain part of the decision-making process.
Key takeaway
This week, risk management was the primary focus for the MUMAK® UMBRELLA Strategy.
Thales was fully sold following confirmed technical weakness and the stop-loss signal. Micron Technology was added as a new engagement in the AI memory and semiconductor space. At PayPal, the attempted stabilization did not hold, so the remaining position was also fully sold following confirmation of the stop-loss.
The UMBRELLA Strategy now comprises 10 stocks with a cash ratio of around 3.9%.
UMBRELLA Strategy: Inflation and Interest Rates Move the Markets