Why the stock appears particularly compelling right now

With the RED HOT CHILI™ MUMAK, MUMAK® highlights every week the company that currently shows the greatest alignment across our five analysis levels:

  • Geopolitics
  • Industry
  • Fundamentals
  • News & Market Sentiment
  • Technical Analysis

This week, MercadoLibre receives this award.

The company continues to combine strong growth in Latin American e-commerce with the increasing importance of its fintech ecosystem around Mercado Pago.

At the same time, the chart picture has also improved significantly recently after several months of technical weakness.

The interplay of high operational growth, rising user engagement, and new technical momentum appears particularly compelling at present.

Fundamental Quality Meets New Momentum

MercadoLibre was able to accelerate its growth significantly once again in the second quarter of 2026.

Revenue including financial income rose year-over-year by 50% to approximately USD 10.2 billion. Gross Merchandise Volume reached USD 21.9 billion, up 44%.

At the same time, total payment volume via Mercado Pago increased to approximately USD 101 billion, representing growth of 56% year-over-year.

Operational usage of the ecosystem also developed positively.

The number of items purchased per buyer increased by 14%, while average assets under management per fintech user rose by 29% to USD 264.

This increasingly demonstrates that MercadoLibre is not only acquiring new customers but also binding existing users ever more strongly within its own commerce and fintech ecosystem.

Precisely this combination remains one of the most important factors within the investment case over the long term.

Growth remains more important than near-term margins

However, strong growth comes at a price.

MercadoLibre continues to invest substantially in logistics, free shipping, credit products, and the expansion of Mercado Pago.

Operating income in the second quarter stood at approximately USD 683 million, while the operating margin reached 6.7%. Consequently, operating income declined year-over-year despite strong revenue growth.

Net income amounted to approximately USD 466 million.

The company therefore continues to prioritize long-term growth over near-term profitability maximization.

From the perspective of the MUMAK® UMBRELLA strategy, it therefore remains critical whether the high investments lead sustainably to higher user engagement, rising market share, and margins that increase again over the long term.

The operational development to date continues to deliver constructive signals in this regard.

Technical analysis now provides additional support

Following the significant price decline in spring, the technical picture of MercadoLibre has considerably improved recently.

Starting from the May low of around EUR 1,547, a recovery initially developed into the range of approximately EUR 1,874.

After renewed consolidation, a significantly more dynamic upward movement began from the end of June.

The stock first overcame the area around EUR 1,874 and recently also managed to break through the previous resistance at approximately EUR 1,940.

However, with a current price of around EUR 1,997, MercadoLibre is now reaching a particularly important technical area.

The area around EUR 2,000 becomes the decisive zone

Attention is now focused on the zone between approximately EUR 2,000 and EUR 2,010.

Here, an important horizontal resistance is located at around EUR 2,009.

Almost simultaneously, the stock encounters the descending long-term trendline that has been in place since last year’s highs.

This overlap significantly increases the technical importance of this price range.

A sustained breakout above this zone could therefore represent an important additional technical signal.

Above this, the next major horizontal resistance is located in the area of approximately EUR 2,137.

The breakout above EUR 1,940 improves market structure

The recent movement above the previous resistance at around EUR 1,940 is particularly important.

This area had previously limited the recovery multiple times.

With the current rise above it, the short-term market structure has improved.

Should MercadoLibre be able to stabilize sustainably above this zone, the former resistance could develop into an initial short-term support in the future.

Below this, the area around EUR 1,874 to EUR 1,876 gains particular importance.

Here, both a horizontal support and the current midline of the Bollinger Bands converge.

A fall back below this area would weaken the recently significantly improved technical picture.

Bollinger Bands indicate strong momentum

The Bollinger Bands also confirm the recent improvement.

The middle line currently runs at approximately EUR 1,876.

At a price of approximately EUR 1,997, MercadoLibre is therefore trading well above the middle Bollinger Band and now in the area of the upper band.

This underscores the recently increased buying pressure.

At the same time, the movement at the upper Bollinger Band shows that the stock has already advanced considerably in the near term.

An interim consolidation would therefore not be unusual within the current upward movement.

It will be critical whether the stock can subsequently stabilize above the areas around EUR 1,940 and EUR 1,876, respectively.

RSI confirms improved dynamics

The Relative Strength Index RSI (14) currently stands at approximately 65 points.

This places the indicator well above the neutral mark of 50 and confirms the current positive momentum.

At the same time, the RSI remains below the commonly used overbought threshold of 70.

This fundamentally suggests that despite the strong recent movement, no pronounced overbought signal is yet present.

However, with further price acceleration, the stock would increasingly approach a short-term overheated area.

MACD delivers a positive short-term signal

The MACD has also improved significantly recently.

The MACD line currently stands at approximately 33.9, clearly above the signal line at around 23.6.

At the same time, the MACD is positive again.

Thus, the indicator confirms the recent upward movement.

It appears particularly constructive that the positive MACD signal coincides with the breakout above the EUR 1,940 area.

Several technical factors could currently favor MercadoLibre

The interplay of several technical chart aspects appears particularly interesting:

  • significant recovery from the May low at approximately EUR 1,547
  • formation of higher lows
  • breakout above the resistance at approximately EUR 1,940
  • current price at approximately EUR 1,997
  • critical resistance area around EUR 2,000–2,010
  • long-term falling trendline immediately above the current price
  • next larger resistance at approximately EUR 2,137
  • Bollinger middle line at approximately EUR 1,876
  • RSI at approximately 65 points
  • MACD well above the signal line
  • positive MACD

From our perspective, precisely this simultaneous occurrence of several constructive factors increases the significance of the current technical improvement.

At the same time, the stock is now immediately ahead of a critical resistance zone.

The area around EUR 2,000 to EUR 2,010 is therefore likely to become particularly important for the further near-term development.

Why does MercadoLibre receive the RED HOT CHILI™ MUMAK?

The RED HOT CHILI™ MUMAK does not recognize the best company.

It recognizes the company where, at the respective analysis time, there is the greatest alignment across our five analysis levels.

For MercadoLibre, we currently see a particularly interesting constellation.

Key Message

MercadoLibre currently combines exceptionally strong operational growth momentum with a significantly improved technical chart picture.

Therefore, MercadoLibre receives the RED HOT CHILI™ MUMAK award this week. 🔥📈

Note

There can only be one RED HOT CHILI™ MUMAK at any given time.

The RED HOT CHILI™ MUMAK is an internal award of the MUMAK® UMBRELLA Strategy. It identifies the company within our analysis universe that, at the time of publication, shows the highest alignment across the five MUMAK® analysis categories.

The award is based on the MUMAK® UMBRELLA Strategy and our analysis of the current market situation. It describes what we consider to be the most compelling overall constellation within our analysis universe at the time of publication and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell.

The assessments presented reflect solely the opinion of MUMAK® at the time of publication and may change at any time. Past performance, current valuations, or awards do not allow for reliable conclusions about future performance.

Investments are associated with risks and can lead to the complete loss of the capital invested. Every investment decision should be based on an independent review and consideration of personal investment goals, investment horizon, and individual risk tolerance.