The past week once again demonstrated familiar market behavior: Despite rising geopolitical uncertainties and higher interest rates, capital continued to concentrate on a few dominant companies, with everything still revolving around AI and related sectors. This pattern increasingly resembles previous late market cycles, in which liquidity selectively flowed into “Quality Leaders,” while capital-intensive and weaker growth sectors remained under pressure.
Microsoft, Apple and to some extent Tesla continued to benefit from their dominant market position within global AI, cloud, and technology infrastructure. Technology is increasingly evolving into a geopolitical competitive advantage between the US and China. The question may be asked: “Where does Europe stand?”
At the same time, the energy sector remains highly relevant geopolitically, but definitely not in focus from a company valuation perspective. Companies such as Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Halliburton and Schlumberger continue to benefit from their strategic role within global energy supply, high oil prices and infrastructure, but are unable to translate this into rising stock prices. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties in global supply chains therefore appear to be fizzling out.
With the new addition of Rheinmetall, the strategic focus on European security and defense infrastructure was strengthened once again. Rising NATO spending and high geopolitical fragmentation could provide structural support within the defense sector. The chart pattern of Rheinmetall could, in this regard, present an interesting entry scenario following the “crash” of recent weeks. Also note the analyst opinions on the company.
In contrast, interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as renewable energy remained under pressure. Nordex and NextEra Energy continued to suffer from rising financing costs and more cautious infrastructure investments.
Within the UMBRELLA Strategy, the position in Uranium Energy was completely closed. The simple reason for this: The execution of a stop-loss due to extreme volatility.
The cash allocation stood at approximately 5% at the end of the week, meaning the UMBRELLA Strategy remains predominantly invested.
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