Dassault Aviation S.A.
Analysis Result: 3 out of 5 MUMAKS
Rating
This analysis evaluates Dassault Aviation according to the UMBRELLA strategy using the MUMAK method.
The valuation is conducted across five decision-making phases: Geopolitics, Industry, Fundamentals, Market Sentiment, and Technical Analysis.
The goal is not to predict the future precisely. The goal is orientation. We contextualize facts, demonstrate causal relationships, and structure a comprehensible decision logic.
We explain – you decide.
Geopolitics
Classification
The geopolitical environment remains a key growth driver for European aerospace and defense companies. Rising NATO defense spending, Europe’s security policy realignment, and ongoing modernization programs continue to ensure high demand for military systems.
However, following the strong price increases of recent years, momentum in the sector has slowed somewhat. Many positive expectations are already priced into valuations. The further development of conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and tensions between the West and China are therefore likely to remain decisive for future price performance.
JP Morgan recently downgraded the short-term price potential of European defense stocks slightly. In the long term, however, the industry’s structural growth drivers remain intact.
Key Takeaway
- Significant increase in defense spending in Europe.
- NATO member states are consistently continuing their modernization programs.
- Sustained high global demand for modern fighter aircraft.
- Export orders from India, Indonesia, Serbia, and the Middle East are driving growth.
- The increasing focus on European strategic autonomy strengthens domestic defense companies.
MUMAK.me Assessment Phase 1: Positive = 1 MUMAK
Dassault Aviation S.A.
Geopolitics Rating: positive
Industry
Assessment
The aerospace and defense industry is currently experiencing one of the strongest growth cycles in decades. Drivers include rising defense budgets, geopolitical tensions, and growing demand for modern military platforms.
Key Takeaway
Valuation Comparison: Dassault Aviation vs. Industry
| Metric | Dassault Aviation | Industry Average* | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.5x | approx. 23–26x | Slight discount |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.5x | 16–20x | In line |
| Dividend Yield | 1,6 % | approx. 1.8–2.2% | Slight discount |
| Order Backlog/Revenue | 6.3x | approx. 2–4x | Significant premium |
Dassault Aviation S.A.
Industry Rating: neutral
* Based on Airbus, Leonardo, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, Saab, and Thales.
MUMAK.me Phase 2 Rating: Neutral = 0 MUMAK
Fundamentals
Assessment
Dassault Aviation achieved excellent financial performance in 2025. This was supported by strong Rafale deliveries in the export business, rising demand for Falcon business jets, and one of the largest order backlogs in the global aerospace industry.
Key Takeaway
- Management expects revenue of around EUR 8.5 billion for 2026.
- Revenue growth of 19% driven by Rafale and Falcon deliveries.
- Record order backlog of EUR 46.6 billion provides long-term planning security.
- Cash position of EUR 9.4 billion ensures an extremely solid balance sheet.
- Continuous dividend growth with a conservative payout ratio of 35%.
Financial Metrics
| EUR million (except EPS) | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026e |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.23 bn | 7.42 bn | approx. 8.50 bn |
| Revenue Growth | – | +19,1 % | +14,6 % |
| Operating Result | 519 million | 635 million | 730–850 million |
| Operating Margin | 8,3 % | 8,6 % | ↗ |
| Net Profit | 1.06 bn | 1.06 bn | >1.10 bn |
| EPS (€) | 13,46 | 13,60 | ↗ |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 8.43 bn | 9.42 bn | >9.0 bn |
| Order Backlog | 43.2 bn | 46.6 bn | Record level |
Order Backlog and Deliveries
| FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rafale Deliveries | 21 | 26 | 28 |
| Falcon Deliveries | 31 | 37 | 40 |
| Rafale Order Backlog | 220 | 220 | Very strong |
| Export Rafale | 164 | 175 | Potential for increase |
| Falcon Order Backlog | 79 | 73 | Stable |
Dividend
For the 2025 fiscal year, Dassault Aviation proposes a dividend of EUR 4.78 per share. The payout corresponds to a ratio of 35% and is fully covered by the company’s earning power and strong net liquidity.
| FY 2024 | FY 2025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend per Share | EUR 4.72 | EUR 4.78 | +1,3 % |
| Total Payout | EUR 370 million | EUR 371 million | Stable |
| Payout Ratio | approx. 35% | approx. 35% | Conservative |
MUMAK.me Assessment Phase 3: Positive = 1 MUMAK
Dassault Aviation S.A.
Fundamentals Rating: positive
News, Analysts, and Market Sentiment
Assessment
Market sentiment toward Dassault Aviation remains positive overall. It is supported by the record order backlog, sustained high demand for Rafale fighter jets, and the robust development of the Falcon business jet business. At the same time, rising defense budgets in Europe and additional export opportunities provide high visibility for future business development.
However, following the strong price performance of recent years, investors are increasingly paying attention to the actual implementation of new orders, margin development, and further export successes. Overall, confidence currently prevails that Dassault Aviation will benefit from long-term trends in the defense and aviation sectors.
Key Takeaway
- Record order backlog of EUR 46.6 billion secures capacity utilization for many years to come.
- Demand for Rafale fighter jets remains high due to ongoing modernization programs and international tenders.
- The Falcon segment benefits from stable demand in the business jet market.
- Analyst sentiment remains predominantly positive, supported by the strong balance sheet, high liquidity reserves, and long-term planning security.
Analyst Consensus
| Average Recommendation | OUTPERFORM |
| Number of Analysts | 17 |
| Average Price Target | ~358 EUR |
| Upside to Average Target | +20 % |
| Upper Target | 420 EUR |
| Lower Target | 300 EUR |
Source: MarketScreener, retrieved in June 2026.
Interesting Fact
At the end of 2025, Dassault Aviation had an order backlog of around 220 Rafale fighter jets and 73 Falcon business jets. This makes the company one of the aircraft manufacturers with the highest capacity utilization worldwide.
MUMAK.me Evaluation Phase 4: Positive = 1 MUMAK
Dassault Aviation S.A.
Market Sentiment Rating: positive
Technical Analysis
Assessment
The technical starting position for Dassault Aviation remains in a long-term upward trend. After the strong rise from around EUR 270 to the year high of EUR 353 in the first quarter of 2026, the stock entered a healthy consolidation phase. During this time, previous price gains were processed without damaging the overall upward trend.
In recent weeks, the price has successfully stabilized above the important support zone. Currently, the stock is trading again around the psychologically important EUR 300 mark and is showing the first signs of resuming the trend.
Key Takeaway
→ The medium-term upward trend remains intact despite the correction of recent months.
→ Support in the EUR 275–286 range was successfully defended, confirming the strength of the long-term buyers.
→ Short-term momentum is improving again as the consolidation appears largely complete.
→ A sustainable breakout above the resistance area could enable a renewed attack on the year high of EUR 353.
RSI (14)
Neutral to slightly positive
- Current RSI: approx. 55
- No Overbought Condition
- RSI has been rising continuously for several weeks
Interpretation: Neutral with a positive tendency.
MACD (12/26/9)
Slightly positive
- MACD line is approaching a bullish crossover
- Histogram is continuously improving
- Negative momentum from the previous correction is decreasing significantly
- First signals of a possible trend acceleration visible
Interpretation: Positive early signal.
Bollinger Bands (20)
Neutral
- Price trading above the middle Bollinger Band
- The bands are starting to narrow again
- Often a precursor to a stronger price movement
Interpretation: The technical picture suggests stabilization and possible preparation for a new upward movement.
MUMAK.me Rating Phase 5: Neutral = 0 MUMAK
Dassault Aviation S.A.
Technical analysis rating: neutral
Summary
The analysis shows an overall stable positive picture with an attractive long-term strategic positioning.
→ Geopolitics → Industry → Fundamental Data → Market Sentiment → Chart Analysis
Dassault Aviation is among Europe’s highest-quality aerospace and defense companies. The investment story is driven by rising global defense spending, robust demand for Rafale fighter jets, a record order backlog, and an exceptionally strong balance sheet.
Despite existing geopolitical risks, the long-term growth potential appears attractive. Increasing defense investments, additional export opportunities, and worldwide modernization programs for armed forces create a solid foundation for further growth.
Rating According to the MUMAK Method
| Category | Rating |
|---|---|
| Geopolitics | Positive |
| Industry | Neutral |
| Fundamentals | Positive |
| News & Sentiment | Positive |
| Technical Analysis | Neutral |
