{"id":8352,"date":"2026-08-14T11:59:08","date_gmt":"2026-08-14T09:59:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mumak.me\/?p=8352"},"modified":"2026-08-14T12:22:33","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T10:22:33","slug":"mumak-spotlight-of-the-week-tkms-palantir-and-spacex-in-focus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mumak.me\/en\/portfolio-updates\/company-update\/mumak-spotlight-of-the-week-tkms-palantir-and-spacex-in-focus\/","title":{"rendered":"MUMAK SpotLight of the week: TKMS, Palantir, and SpaceX in focus"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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The ongoing earnings season and recent market movements once again show how differently operational strength, valuation, and short-term price reactions can turn out. TKMS<\/strong><\/a> benefits from the international expansion of defense capabilities and raises its guidance following strong nine-month figures. Palantir<\/strong><\/a> combines exceptional AI growth with an ambitious valuation, while SpaceX<\/strong><\/a> continues to be in a volatile phase of price discovery following its IPO.<\/div>

TKMS: Strong figures and higher guidance<\/h2>
TKMS<\/strong><\/a> increased revenue in the first nine months of the 2025\/26 fiscal year by 19% to \u20ac1.89 billion. Adjusted EBIT increased by 13% to \u20ac110 million. The submarine business developed particularly strongly, with its adjusted EBIT rising from \u20ac11 million to \u20ac46 million.<\/div>
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The order backlog remains at a historic level of around \u20ac20.1 billion. At the same time, TKMS<\/a><\/strong> has additional major projects, including possible submarine orders from Canada and India as well as further frigate programs.<\/div>
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Management significantly increased the guidance for the current fiscal year. Instead of revenue growth of previously 2% to 5%, TKMS<\/a><\/strong> now expects an increase of 10% to 12%. The adjusted EBIT margin is expected to reach up to 6.5%.<\/div>
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Free cash flow remains a burden, deteriorating to minus \u20ac204 million due to high project expenses and lower customer prepayments.<\/div>

MUMAK Assessment<\/h3>
TKMS<\/a><\/strong> benefits from a structural growth market, an exceptionally high order backlog, and increasing profitability. The raised guidance confirms the positive operational development.<\/div>
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Risks remain long project lead times, political dependencies, and the currently negative free cash flow. Following the strong price reaction to the figures, it will now be decisive whether the improved fundamental picture is also confirmed by the chart technicals.<\/div>

Palantir: Strong AI growth meets high expectations<\/h2>
Palantir<\/strong><\/a> remains one of the most dynamic titles in the AI sector following exceptionally strong quarterly figures. Revenue rose by 93% to $1.935 billion in the second quarter. Adjusted operating income increased by 159% to $1.20 billion, and free cash flow by 114% to $1.22 billion.<\/div>
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The US business once again developed particularly strongly. Revenue from commercial customers rose by 149%, while revenue from government customers increased by 90%. For the full year, Palantir<\/a><\/strong> now expects revenue of around $8.15 billion.<\/div>
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Following the massive price jump after the quarterly figures, the stock remained extremely volatile this week as well. Intermittent profit-taking was once again replaced by strong buying.<\/div>
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The fundamental development thus remains exceptional. At the same time, Palantir<\/a><\/strong> is now among the highest-valued large software companies worldwide.<\/div>

MUMAK Assessment<\/h3>
Palantir<\/strong><\/a> combines exceptional growth with high profitability and strong free cash flow. The increasing adoption of the Artificial Intelligence Platform creates significant long-term potential.<\/div>
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The greatest risk, however, remains the valuation. The current price assumes that Palantir<\/a><\/strong> can continue its high growth rates over a long period. Even minor disappointments could therefore trigger sharper corrections.<\/div>
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Following the recent rally, momentum remains fundamentally positive. However, short-term profit-taking and consolidations are possible at any time after the significant price increases.<\/div>

SpaceX: High volatility after the IPO<\/h2>
SpaceX<\/strong><\/a> remains one of the most volatile large technology stocks just a few weeks after its IPO. After the IPO at $135, the stock initially rose to more than $225 before a significant correction followed, reaching the area of around $105.<\/div>
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Recently, the chart pattern has brightened again. After strong price gains at the end of last week, the recovery continued this week. Individual trading days again brought movements in the high single-digit percentage range.<\/div>
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The stock was thus able to reclaim the area around the IPO price of $135. At the same time, the distance to the previous high remains significant.<\/div>
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Fundamentally, SpaceX<\/a><\/strong> combines several structural growth themes. Starlink is increasingly creating recurring revenue, while the rocket and satellite business offers high technological barriers to entry. At the same time, expansion and future space programs require significant investment.<\/div>

MUMAK Assessment<\/h3>
SpaceX<\/strong><\/a> possesses an exceptional strategic market position and significant long-term growth opportunities. The combination of space travel, satellite infrastructure, and Starlink creates a business model that is difficult to compare with existing listed companies.<\/div>
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At the same time, the stock is still in an early phase of price discovery. High expectations and the ambitious valuation accordingly lead to strong price movements.<\/div>
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From a chart technical perspective, the area around the IPO price remains particularly important. If the stock can stabilize above it, the short-term picture would improve further. A renewed fall below it, however, could trigger additional selling pressure.<\/div>

Core Statement<\/h2>
The three companies represent different structural growth themes. TKMS<\/strong><\/a> benefits from the long-term expansion of international defense capabilities and is currently convincing with rising revenue, a historic order backlog, and higher guidance.<\/div>
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Palantir<\/strong><\/a> remains one of the strongest operational growth companies in the AI sector. However, the exceptional momentum in revenue, profitability, and free cash flow meets a correspondingly high valuation.<\/div>
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SpaceX<\/strong><\/a> combines enormous long-term technological opportunities with a young stock market history and correspondingly high volatility.<\/div>
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At the same time, the risks remain clearly recognizable: project and cash flow risks at TKMS<\/strong><\/a>, high expectations and valuation risks at Palantir<\/strong><\/a>, as well as strong price fluctuations and a demanding valuation at SpaceX<\/strong><\/a>.<\/div>
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From the perspective of the UMBRELLA strategy, all three companies confirm interesting long-term investment stories. However, the alignment of fundamental data, market sentiment, and chart technicals remains decisive. Reactions based on the MUMAK\u00ae methodology are therefore expressly reserved and heavily dependent on further developments in the chart.<\/div>
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Inside UMBRELLA Podcast \u2013 Listen to the latest episode<\/h2>

Would you like to look beyond the pure numbers and learn more about the considerations behind the UMBRELLA Strategy<\/strong>?<\/p>

In the latest episode of Inside UMBRELLA<\/strong>, Richard Dobetsberger provides current insights into the strategy and recent market developments. SpaceX<\/strong>, one of the companies from this market update, is also among the topics of the new episode.<\/p>

Listen to the latest episode of Inside UMBRELLA now on Spotify:<\/strong><\/p><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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